Recent and current model guidance is indicating the increasing likelihood (trend) we will see a prolonged outbreak of thunderstorms across a large area of eastern Australia. Likely areas include from the Top End (NT) through QLD & NSW into Victoria with the main focus being on QLD and eastern parts of NSW & Victoria.
Not every day will produce severe thunderstorms in one area, however the atmospheric conditions over this period will lead to an overall higher chance. Setups will vary day by day however some of these are likely to be severe with storms producing damaging to potentially destructive winds, large hail and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.
Note: These individual daily setups can only be forecast with a higher degree of accuracy using a lead time of around 1 to 2 days. This is due to the incredibly high complexity of atmospheric setups and dynamics of severe thunderstorm outbreaks.
EWN will continue to monitor the potential upcoming severe thunderstorm outbreak and provide more information in our forecasts each morning.