Whitsundays News. Local News from around and about the Whitsundays: How well was TC Yasi's path predicted

Weather Computer modelling has improved immensely since the first black & white satellite photos of the 1970's. Now, we not only get colour & enhanced Satellite photos within seconds and weather radar for micro forecasting, but super computers in the USA & Europe are now used to construct future forecast models.

Tracks of Cyclones Anthony and Yasi

We recorded models, and even produced some of our own, with the information and resources provided by the US Navy, European Union and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Let's have a look at how well the 'predictions' were . . . . (click images to enlarge & animate)


10pm 24 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - Shows predicted (and actual) path of 'Anthony', plus the birth of 'Yasi'

4pm 25 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - Shows prediction for 'Anthony', plus 'Yasi' predicted heading towards Hervey Bay


4am 26 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - Shows prediction for 'Anthony', plus 'Yasi' predicted heading towards Brisbane

10pm 26 Jan: European Union - First model that predicts size, intensity, and near actual landfall

10am 26 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - Model showed Yasi predicted to hit Rockhampton AM Thur 4 Feb.

10am 26 Jan: European Union - Model that shows again size, intensity and close approx. of landfall

4pm 28 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - Model that showsYasi much weaker than Euro model and making landfall around Galdstone on the night of Wed 2 Feb

10pm 28 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - This model was made just 6 hours after the model above predicting Yasi to hit the Whitsundays head on around 10am Wed 2 Feb

10am 26 Jan: European Union - Model that shows again size & intensity of Yasi - this model predicts landfall around Bowen about 10am Thur 3 Feb


10am 29 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - This model shows Yasi to hit south of Townsville around 10am Thur 3 Feb

10am 26 Jan: European Union - Model predicts very intense & large Yasi to hit around Ayr Thur 10am 3 Feb

4am 30 Jan: USNavy - Still: Intensity & size comparison of Cyclones Anthony & Yasi

10pm 29 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - This model shows Yasi to hit the Whitsundays around 4pm Thur 3 Feb

10pm 29 Jan: European Union - Produced same time as USNavy model above. Predicts Yasi to make landfall around Bowen 10am Thur 3 Feb

4am 31 Jan : Multiple Agencies predict track of Yasi

10am 30 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - This model shows Yasi to hit Ayr around 10pm Thur 3 Feb

4pm 31 Jan: BoM - Predicted track of Yasi

10am 31 Jan : Multiple Agencies predict track of Yasi

10pm 29 Jan: European Union - Yasi expected to make landfall 10pm Wed 2 Feb around Townsville

10am 30 Jan: USNavy - Still: This model shows Yasi to just N of Townsville around Sunrise, Thur 3 Feb

4pm 30 Jan: USNavy Rain Model - This model is the first to pick landfall and time correctly - shows Yasi to make landfall between Townsville & Cairns around 4am Thur 3 Feb.

10am 1 Feb: BoM - Predicted track of Yasi

10am 1 Feb: European Union - Yasi expected to make landfall 10pm Wed 2 Feb around Innisfail

10am 30 Jan: USNavy - Still: Shows Yasi to hit just S of Cairns around 11pm Wed 2 Feb

10am 1 Feb: USNavy Winds Model - This model picks landfall and time correctly - shows Yasi to make landfall between Townsville & Cairns around 10pm Wed 2 Feb.